Twtitter stocks

Jan 31, 2025

I like reading stock discussions on Twitter but I don’t like participating in them. I just always thought that it’s not my style. Despite this, a little more than a year ago I decided to give it a go, because, in my opinion, it’s a net positive when you share your thoughts about a company publicly. So, I was posting thoughts and valuation numbers on various companies, and got into stock discussions on other people’s threads. It wasn’t much, but it was a “zero to one” transition for me. I had been right in the first place - not my style, so, no more of it. However, tickers were mentioned and I have this feeling that I owe some thoughts on the companies that were posted on the account. It’s a useful exercise anyway, so why not do it. 

Here is a rundown on the companies mentioned. 

SEZL. I still own the stock, it trades at 19x 2025(e) earnings. Two things I believe: one, multiple should be higher and, two, they will beat the earnings projections. 

MRAI. I sold the stock when the CFO did not reply to multiple emails about delisting. Then the company filed a note on Friday after hours. I didn’t like it. The thesis still holds though, the management is overqualified for the size of the company and is likely to deliver. 

BCOV. I sold (too early), broke even, and poured funds elsewhere. Thesis worked out though, the company got acquired for 100% premium.

RTH.AX.  I sold at a decent gain. Valuation was getting higher while prospects of growth were not as clear. They recently announced that they revisited their relationship with a trading partner which will affect revenue in the short term. Share price came down quite a bit and I am watching this one closely. I like the company.

CULP. I sold, broke even and put money elsewhere. The thesis will take a longer time to play out. Corporate structure is over bloated which activists are trying to fix. We’ll see how that goes.

NOA. I sold, broke even and put money elsewhere. I really liked the company and the management. Their Australian acquisition was great. This is just not a great business. Too much capex is required all the time. NOA and their peers will always try to mask the fact that much of the cash from operations will always go to fixing or buying new equipment. Some do this better than others and NOA is definitely one of the leaders. However, I have the entire universe of companies and business models to choose from. This one is not it. 

VAPO.  I could have waited just one week to see 166% gain in a day (and about 150% gain on my average purchase price) as the company was acquired. I was right on a thesis but got tired of waiting. It’s almost unbelievable - I sold on Jun 14th and the company announced it was being acquired on June 17th.

CUTR. I lost money here. It was a risky small bet, and the turnaround did not happen (yet?). 

PLCE. Company is well discussed online. I sold when all the craziness started to happen. I lost a little money on this one. 

SUP. This one was a break even for me. I just figured there are too many moving parts in the story and there are simpler ideas out there.

BBW. I made a little money and redirected the funds. I was right on the thesis and the stock went up a lot since I sold. I am rooting for the company and still believe their strong brand will keep paying off in the future.

UNTC. This one held me through 2023. I sold in the 40s because I saw opportunity elsewhere. 

RMBL. They have a great asset at hand. The cash is not coming in as quickly as was expected for the turnaround. I never invested but am still watching closely. 

The losses from trades were usually caused by lack of patience and wrong timing. In most cases the thesis was correct, which is great. 

Now, back to proper write-ups.